binary question
Will OpenAI complete an IPO and begin public trading by the end of 2026?
Closed Verified
Closed Resolves
Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if shares of OpenAI, or a successor entity whose primary business is OpenAI's AI business, begin public trading through an initial public offering on a regulated stock exchange by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, resolves No.
What counts — and what doesn’t
A confidential or public registration statement, announcement, roadshow, indication of interest, IPO pricing, or allocation of shares does not count unless public exchange trading begins by the deadline. Private secondary-market transactions, employee share sales, fund interests that provide indirect exposure to OpenAI, an acquisition by another company, a direct listing, or a SPAC transaction do not count. Trading counts once the exchange records the first public trade, even if trading is subsequently halted.
Sources
Forecasting closed
This question closed on . Forecasting is over.
Community forecast
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1 eligible forecaster
Background
OpenAI announced on 8 June 2026 that it had confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement for a proposed initial public offering. OpenAI said it had not decided on the timing and that going public could take a while because some work may be easier to complete while it remains private.
Revision history
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bafyreigkecyba…
Forecasts (1 person)
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