binary question
Will Anthropic complete an IPO and begin public trading by the end of 2026?
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Resolution criteria
Resolves Yes if shares of Anthropic, PBC, or a successor entity whose primary business is Anthropic's AI business begin public trading through an initial public offering on a regulated stock exchange by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, resolves No.
What counts — and what doesn’t
A confidential or public registration statement, announcement, roadshow, indication of interest, IPO pricing, or allocation of shares does not count unless public exchange trading begins by the deadline. Private secondary-market transactions, employee share sales, fund interests that provide indirect exposure to Anthropic, an acquisition by another company, a direct listing, or a SPAC transaction do not count. Trading counts once the exchange records the first public trade, even if trading is subsequently halted.
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Background
Anthropic announced on 1 June 2026 that it had confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering. Anthropic said the filing gives it the option to go public after SEC review and that the offering remains dependent on market conditions and other factors.
Revision history
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