matakite /ˈmatakite/ A Māori word for a seer — one who perceives what is to come.

binary forecast

Will Tesla make Optimus available to an outside customer by the end of 2026?

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by @matakite.app Closes Resolves

#tech#tesla#robotics#ai#optimus

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Appears once at least 3 people have forecast independently (0/3).

Resolution criteria

Resolves Yes if Tesla accepts a binding paid order for an Optimus humanoid robot from at least one customer unaffiliated with Tesla by 31 December 2026 at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, resolves No.

Background

Tesla describes Optimus as a general-purpose autonomous humanoid robot and says it is preparing for volume production. Its first-generation production lines are being installed, but development, internal deployment, and commercial availability to outside customers are distinct milestones.

Fine print

A refundable expression-of-interest deposit, wait-list registration, non-binding letter of intent, free trial, demonstration, research partnership, or internal use by Tesla or a Tesla-controlled entity does not count. A limited commercial sale to a selected business counts if the customer incurs a binding payment obligation for the robot. Delivery is not required by the deadline once a qualifying order has been accepted. Sales by an unrelated reseller count only if Tesla previously completed a commercial sale of that unit to the reseller.

Revision history
  1. live verified bafyreidnhabuj…

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